An Annual Forecasting Tradition What began as Scott Alexander publishing annual predictions on Slate Star Codex and later Astral Codex Ten has grown into a vibrant, community-wide forecasting tradition. This year’s contest draws directly from that community, with all questions suggested by ACX readers.
An annual forecasting tradition What started as Scott Alexander publishing annual predictions on Slate Star Codex and later Astral Codex Ten has evolved into a vibrant forecasting community tradition. This contest offers both seasoned and aspiring forecasters a chance to refine their skills while tracking current events through a predictive lens. For 2025, Scott Alexander has once again ...
Metaculus and Bridgewater Associates are partnering again on a unique forecasting competition. Starting January 12, forecasters of all experience levels can share their predictions across a variety of questions. The most accurate forecasters will be eligible for $30,000 in prizes and potential opportunities with Bridgewater. Last competition, multiple offers were made to the top forecasters ...
Vox's Future Perfect spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers forecast the coming year and assess their previous predictions. This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. On January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them ...
FutureEval measures the ability of AI agents to predict future outcomes, in Science, Technology, Health, Geopolitics, AI itself, and more. Forecasting is a key skill in many real-world tasks, enabling planning, risk assessment, and decision-making. Learn more Metaculus Platform 3.2M+ predictions, 12 years, 22k questions
Additional Tournament Information Aggregated Community Predictions will appear in the Future Perfect article on Vox.com in the January 1st, 2025 article. Questions will close . The prize pool will be disbursed in 2026 after all questions have resolved, and the tournament will follow standard tournament scoring.